← Game Nut Distorted Reflections Regional
Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Game Nut Distorted Reflections Regional
decks
1
(2.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-3-0
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
38.1%
avg ELO -7.6 per match
expected value
42.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1127
· median 1127
· range 1127–1127
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1120
Q1 1201
Q3 1339
1689
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Crux Mage | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.4 |
| Fire Diao Chan | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.3 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.4 |
| Water Triskit | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Ravishing Mill decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
