← Game Nut Distorted Reflections Regional
Water Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Game Nut Distorted Reflections Regional
decks
3
(8.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
20
9-10-1
overall winrate
47.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.0%
avg ELO -1.1 per match
expected value
48.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1263
· median 1278
· range 1203–1307
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1120
Q1 1201
Q3 1339
1689
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -1.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -1.4 |
| Water Allies | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.7 |
| Water Genbu | 5.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.6% | -1.1 |
| Wind Allies | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.3% | -12.2 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Crux Mage | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
| Fire Diao Chan | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.4% | +3.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Triskit | 2.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.8% | -12.7 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 2.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -1.3 |
| Wind Slimes | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
