← Game Nut Distorted Reflections Regional
Wind Slice & DiceTier 2
at Game Nut Distorted Reflections Regional
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | -8.1 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.2 |
| Water Genbu | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Crux Mage | 2.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.9% | -13.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.3 |
| Fire Diao Chan | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.6 |
| Water Neos | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -12.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.2 |
| Water Triskit | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 45 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 45 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Windwalker Boots | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Emergent Dagger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grande Aiguille | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Charged Directive | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Charged Mannequin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Hired Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Mirage's Grave | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dreamy Unicorn | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Manxome Armoire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Windmill Engineer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Manufacture Cell | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Omenbringer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Reflected Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sirocco Operative | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Overpowering Defense | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |