← Gamers Guild Tempe - Grand Archive Distorted Reflections Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Gamers Guild Tempe - Grand Archive Distorted Reflections Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Water Crux Mage 1 7.7% 4 75.0% 64.3% 60.0% 60.7% 1128 ↓ low
2 Water Genbu 1 7.7% 4 100.0% 65.7% 60.0% 56.8% 1517 ↑ top
3 Fire Aggro 1 7.7% 5 80.0% 68.9% 55.7% 57.2% 1114 ↓ low
4 Water Allies 1 7.7% 5 50.0% 45.6% 51.2% 49.6% 1368 ↑ top
5 Wind Shadowstrike 3 23.1% 12 50.0% 45.5% 51.1% 49.3% 1260
6 Wind Slice & Dice 1 7.7% 4 37.5% 46.4% 48.0% 49.3% 1235
7 Fire Umbra Guardian 1 7.7% 4 50.0% 54.5% 46.7% 49.1% 1147 ↓ low
8 Fire Rile 2 15.4% 5 40.0% 50.6% 45.7% 48.4% 1198
9 Water Aetherwing 1 7.7% 3 33.3% 44.6% 40.0% 42.0% 1214
10 Water Ravishing Mill 1 7.7% 2 0.0% 39.2% 40.0% 43.5% 1094 ↓ low
11 Wind Allies 1 7.7% 4 0.0% 23.9% 40.0% 39.5% 1176 ↓ low