← Gamers Guild NPHX - Grand Archive Distorted Reflections Store Championship
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Gamers Guild NPHX - Grand Archive Distorted Reflections Store Championship
decks
2
(14.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
3-5-1
overall winrate
38.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.0%
avg ELO -2.3 per match
expected value
48.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1220
· median 1220
· range 1147–1292
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1094
Q1 1160
Q3 1323
1436
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 21.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.4% | +13.9 |
| Fire Rile | 21.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 46.7% | -3.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Fire Exia | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -7.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 7.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.7% | -2.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
