← Gamers Guild NPHX - Grand Archive Distorted Reflections Store Championship
Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at Gamers Guild NPHX - Grand Archive Distorted Reflections Store Championship
decks
1
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
3-1-0
overall winrate
75.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.3%
avg ELO +6.0 per match
expected value
54.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1235
· median 1235
· range 1235–1235
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1094
Q1 1160
Q3 1323
1436
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 21.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -0.6 |
| Fire Rile | 21.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +12.9 |
| Water Fractal | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Ravishing Mill decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
