← Gamers Guild NPHX - Grand Archive Distorted Reflections Store Championship
Water FractalTier 2
at Gamers Guild NPHX - Grand Archive Distorted Reflections Store Championship
decks
1
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-4-0
overall winrate
20.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
36.3%
avg ELO -7.9 per match
expected value
40.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
41.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1159
· median 1159
· range 1159–1159
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1094
Q1 1160
Q3 1323
1436
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 21.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.3% | -15.1 |
| Fire Rile | 21.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 14.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.3% | +2.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
