Fire Crux LorraineTier 1

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

The 5 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

• Rhetoryx 85 cards · placed #4
• flarians 85 cards · placed #8
• klvr 85 cards · placed #10
• Edm0nd 85 cards · placed #16
• Benkun 81 cards · placed #28

In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Crux Sight, Undying Dreams, Evercurrent Raider. Losers more often ran: Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin, Regal Inquisition, Hone by Fire.

↑ Played more by winners

Crux Sight

Winning decks ran 1.7 copies on average, losing decks 0.3.

Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.

Undying Dreams

Winning decks ran 3.3 copies on average, losing decks 0.7.

Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.

Evercurrent Raider

Winning decks ran 1.0 copy on average, losing decks 0.3.

Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.

Cremation Ritual

Winning decks ran 3.7 copies on average, losing decks 3.3.

Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.

Scatter Essence

Winning decks ran 1.0 copy on average, losing decks 0.3.

Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.

Honorable Vanguard

Winning decks ran 1.3 copies on average, losing decks 0.7.

Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.

↓ Played more by losers

Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin

Losing decks ran 3.7 copies on average, winning decks 1.7.

Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.

Regal Inquisition

Losing decks ran 1.7 copies on average, winning decks 1.0.

Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.

Hone by Fire

Losing decks ran 2.0 copies on average, winning decks 0.7.

Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.