← AGORA HOBBY DTR Store Championship
Fire Umbra CielTier 3
at AGORA HOBBY DTR Store Championship
decks
1
(1.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-3-1
overall winrate
41.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.4%
avg ELO -0.3 per match
expected value
42.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1350
· median 1350
· range 1350–1350
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1013
Q1 1253
Q3 1433
1633
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 24.1% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 38.5% | -8.6 |
| Water Fractal | 10.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.2% | -6.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 6.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Water Allies | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Ciel decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
