Fire Crux MageTier 1

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

The 14 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

• Liekkii 85 cards · placed #2
• GGplx 84 cards · placed #6
• Neoniclax 85 cards · placed #9
• Centratus 83 cards · placed #11
• Miaotato 84 cards · placed #19
• Maxho66 83 cards · placed #24
• ImCryingAgain 84 cards · placed #33
• Goodnevild 83 cards · placed #42
• VRMAN 83 cards · placed #45
• Slaine 83 cards · placed #49
• KcBanana 83 cards · placed #50
• drakon274 83 cards · placed #53
• DeRealDeal 84 cards · placed #56
• Zero99 84 cards · placed #58

In 9 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).

Winners more often ran: Undying Dreams, Duplicitous Replication, Sword of Seeking. Losers more often ran: Blanche, Sheltering Saint, Fast Cure, Flame-Rune Swordsman.

↑ Played more by winners

Undying Dreams

Winning decks ran 3.1 copies on average, losing decks 2.7.

Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in 5, the loser ran more in 2, both ran the same in 2.

Duplicitous Replication

Winning decks ran 0.7 copies on average, losing decks 0.0.

Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 6.

Sword of Seeking

Winning decks ran 0.4 copies on average, losing decks 0.2.

Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in 4, the loser ran more in 2, both ran the same in 3.

Nullifying Lantern

Winning decks ran 0.9 copies on average, losing decks 0.7.

Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 5.

Cremation Ritual

Winning decks ran 3.4 copies on average, losing decks 3.2.

Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 5.

Reduce to Ash

Winning decks ran 1.0 copy on average, losing decks 0.7.

Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 2, both ran the same in 4.

↓ Played more by losers

Blanche, Sheltering Saint

Losing decks ran 1.8 copies on average, winning decks 0.9.

Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in 5, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 3.

Fast Cure

Losing decks ran 3.2 copies on average, winning decks 2.6.

Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in 4, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 4.

Flame-Rune Swordsman

Losing decks ran 2.0 copies on average, winning decks 1.1.

Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in 5, the winner ran more in 3, both ran the same in 1.

Turbo Charge

Losing decks ran 0.9 copies on average, winning decks 0.7.

Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 5.

Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin

Losing decks ran 2.8 copies on average, winning decks 2.2.

Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 2, both ran the same in 4.

Smoke Out

Losing decks ran 0.6 copies on average, winning decks 0.2.

Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 6.