← Wilczek - Distorted Reflections - Regionals
Fire CielTier 2
at Wilczek - Distorted Reflections - Regionals
decks
1
(2.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
1-5-0
overall winrate
16.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
34.2%
avg ELO -8.4 per match
expected value
41.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1172
· median 1172
· range 1172–1172
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
983
Q1 1183
Q3 1380
1543
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 22.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 6.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 6.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.0 |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Ciel decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
