← Wilczek - Distorted Reflections - Regionals
Fire Crux LorraineTier 1
at Wilczek - Distorted Reflections - Regionals
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 22.0% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 60.7% | +6.9 |
| Fire Suited | 6.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 6.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.0% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.1% | -5.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +1.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Water Genbu | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.4% | +5.5 |
| Wind Allies | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ciel | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Fire Exia | 2.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 40.6% | -9.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 2.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.9% | -8.2 |
| Slimes | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.3% | +19.7 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.7% | -6.8 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 13 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 13 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |