← Wilczek - Distorted Reflections - Regionals
Fire SuitedTier 1
at Wilczek - Distorted Reflections - Regionals
decks
3
(6.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
9-7-2
overall winrate
55.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.7%
avg ELO +3.0 per match
expected value
55.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
58.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1306
· median 1350
· range 1182–1385
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
983
Q1 1183
Q3 1380
1543
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 22.0% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 64.6% | +9.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 6.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.7% | +10.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Wind Allies | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ciel | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.9% | -6.5 |
| Fire Exia | 2.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 2.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.0% | -15.4 |
| Slimes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.3 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.8 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
