← Wilczek - Distorted Reflections - Regionals
Fire SlimesTier 1
at Wilczek - Distorted Reflections - Regionals
decks
2
(4.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
8-3-1
overall winrate
70.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.4%
avg ELO +3.1 per match
expected value
61.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
58.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1466
· median 1466
· range 1464–1468
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
983
Q1 1183
Q3 1380
1543
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 22.0% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 67.9% | +13.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -1.3 |
| Fire Suited | 6.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 6.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.9% | -4.9 |
| Water Genbu | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.3% | -2.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ciel | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Exia | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.8 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Slimes decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
