Water Umbra GuardianTier 2
at GAG Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.1% | -15.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -2.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +1.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 34.7% | -11.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.8% | +13.2 |
| Wind Ravishing Mill | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.7% | +23.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 27 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 27 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tide Diviner | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Glacial Evocation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Imperial Accord | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devouring Malice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Brusque Neige | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shield | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |