← 9/21 TGCShuffle DTR Store Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 9/21 TGCShuffle DTR Store Championship .
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 6.7% | 6 | 83.3% | 60.3% | 58.9% | 53.8% | 1545 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Crux Mage | 3 | 20.0% | 12 | 70.8% | 70.3% | 56.8% | 57.6% | 1343 | — |
| 3 | Water Allies | 1 | 6.7% | 5 | 60.0% | 47.4% | 51.7% | 47.4% | 1412 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Fractal | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 50.0% | 50.1% | 50.0% | 49.3% | 1417 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Exia | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 25.0% | 34.4% | 47.5% | 45.4% | 1303 | — |
| 6 | Wind Shadowstrike | 3 | 20.0% | 8 | 43.8% | 47.7% | 47.2% | 48.0% | 1268 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Water Genbu | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 50.0% | 51.6% | 46.7% | 47.9% | 1316 | — |
| 8 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 50.0% | 56.0% | 45.0% | 47.4% | 1196 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 25.0% | 40.6% | 43.3% | 44.4% | 1460 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Slimes | 1 | 6.7% | 3 | 0.0% | 33.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | 1062 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 6.7% | 2 | 0.0% | 30.2% | 40.0% | 38.1% | 1309 | — |