← 9/21 TGCShuffle DTR Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 9/21 TGCShuffle DTR Store Championship . EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Suzaku 1 6.7% 6 83.3% 60.3% 58.9% 53.8% 1545 ↑ top
2 Fire Crux Mage 3 20.0% 12 70.8% 70.3% 56.8% 57.6% 1343
3 Water Allies 1 6.7% 5 60.0% 47.4% 51.7% 47.4% 1412 ↑ top
4 Water Fractal 1 6.7% 4 50.0% 50.1% 50.0% 49.3% 1417 ↑ top
5 Fire Exia 1 6.7% 4 25.0% 34.4% 47.5% 45.4% 1303
6 Wind Shadowstrike 3 20.0% 8 43.8% 47.7% 47.2% 48.0% 1268 ↓ low
7 Water Genbu 1 6.7% 4 50.0% 51.6% 46.7% 47.9% 1316
8 Fire Oblation 1 6.7% 4 50.0% 56.0% 45.0% 47.4% 1196 ↓ low
9 Wind Seiryuu 1 6.7% 4 25.0% 40.6% 43.3% 44.4% 1460 ↑ top
10 Slimes 1 6.7% 3 0.0% 33.0% 40.0% 42.3% 1062 ↓ low
11 Fire Luxem Assassin 1 6.7% 2 0.0% 30.2% 40.0% 38.1% 1309