← Storm Gate Games Distorted Reflections Store Championships

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Storm Gate Games Distorted Reflections Store Championships. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Aggro 4 28.6% 14 67.9% 61.4% 58.5% 56.8% 1307
2 Fire Luxem Assassin 1 7.1% 4 75.0% 56.9% 55.0% 52.8% 1461 ↑ top
3 Water Fractal 1 7.1% 4 50.0% 49.9% 53.3% 52.3% 1212 ↓ low
4 Wind Shadowstrike 2 14.3% 8 56.2% 58.3% 49.2% 50.9% 1210 ↓ low
5 Fire Suited 1 7.1% 4 37.5% 41.7% 49.1% 47.4% 1301
6 Fire Suzaku 2 14.3% 8 50.0% 45.1% 49.0% 47.0% 1306
7 Wind Allies 3 21.4% 10 15.0% 33.3% 40.3% 43.6% 1186 ↓ low