EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at ACMETCG Store Championship .
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 6.2% | 6 | 100.0% | 62.5% | 69.1% | 57.9% | 1488 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 6.2% | 8 | 75.0% | 66.9% | 59.0% | 59.8% | 1172 | ↓ low |
| 3 | Wind Lorraine | 1 | 6.2% | 6 | 66.7% | 65.0% | 54.2% | 57.1% | 1320 | — |
| 4 | Fire Rile | 7 | 43.8% | 25 | 56.0% | 54.8% | 53.4% | 52.5% | 1359 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Crux Mage | 3 | 18.8% | 14 | 57.1% | 51.1% | 51.5% | 49.7% | 1407 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Wind Shadowstrike | 3 | 18.8% | 14 | 42.9% | 51.6% | 46.7% | 50.6% | 1207 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 6.2% | 5 | 40.0% | 43.6% | 46.4% | 45.2% | 1326 | — |
| 8 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 6.2% | 5 | 40.0% | 36.5% | 46.2% | 42.5% | 1376 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 6.2% | 6 | 50.0% | 59.2% | 44.3% | 49.7% | 1280 | — |
| 10 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 6.2% | 5 | 20.0% | 38.5% | 44.0% | 46.6% | 1362 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Wind Allies | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 12.5% | 28.7% | 40.8% | 39.3% | 1460 | ↑ top |
| 12 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 12.5% | 28.7% | 40.8% | 39.3% | 1460 | ↑ top |
| 13 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 6.2% | 6 | 16.7% | 36.7% | 38.8% | 42.3% | 1063 | ↓ low |