← Hobbies Corner DTR Store Championship
Water Crux MageTier 2
at Hobbies Corner DTR Store Championship
decks
1
(5.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
3
0-2-1
overall winrate
16.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.7%
avg ELO -7.7 per match
expected value
41.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1196
· median 1196
· range 1196–1196
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1196
Q1 1258
Q3 1438
1513
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 21.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 15.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 15.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -17.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 10.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.0% | +4.9 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
