EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Home-run Store Championships. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Fire Aggro

59.6%

3.1% share · 14 matches

1st

Water Crux Mage

62.0%

3.1% share · 7 matches

3rd

Fire Astra Cleric

58.1%

3.1% share · 6 matches

↑ top

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Water Crux Mage	1	3.1%	7	71.4%	57.4%	62.0%	57.6%	1338	—
2	Fire Aggro	1	3.1%	14	71.4%	70.5%	59.6%	61.8%	1305	—
3	Fire Astra Cleric	1	3.1%	6	66.7%	56.6%	58.1%	57.9%	1519	↑ top
4	Fire Suzaku	4	12.5%	25	58.0%	64.3%	54.6%	58.2%	1263	↓ low
5	Wind Wakeup Combo	2	6.2%	15	60.0%	47.1%	54.5%	48.9%	1390	↑ top
6	Fire Oblation	2	6.2%	15	60.0%	62.5%	53.8%	57.4%	1288	—
7	Wind Shadowstrike	2	6.2%	12	54.2%	54.1%	53.1%	53.6%	1257	↓ low
8	Fire Rile	14	43.8%	60	50.0%	48.6%	49.3%	48.4%	1333	—
9	Water Allies	1	3.1%	7	50.0%	50.8%	49.1%	50.2%	1223	↓ low
10	Water Astra Ranger	1	3.1%	5	40.0%	44.4%	49.0%	49.4%	1223	↓ low
11	Fire Slimes	2	6.2%	10	30.0%	45.1%	49.0%	53.0%	1261	↓ low
12	Fire Suited	1	3.1%	7	42.9%	41.2%	48.7%	45.3%	1364	—
13	Wind Seiryuu	2	6.2%	13	38.5%	48.9%	48.3%	53.0%	1297	—
14	Water Aetherwing	1	3.1%	10	60.0%	59.8%	46.6%	48.6%	1535	↑ top
15	Wind Umbra Diana	1	3.1%	8	50.0%	38.1%	46.0%	41.6%	1507	↑ top
16	Fire Luxem Assassin	2	6.2%	11	40.9%	22.8%	44.3%	33.1%	1570	↑ top
17	Wind Allies	1	3.1%	6	41.7%	49.0%	43.8%	46.8%	1259	↓ low
18	Water Fractal	1	3.1%	4	12.5%	40.1%	40.5%	45.1%	1312	—
19	Wind Astra Cleric	1	3.1%	7	28.6%	32.1%	39.1%	37.0%	1397	↑ top
20	Water Tristan	1	3.1%	6	0.0%	34.0%	31.6%	39.7%	1064	↓ low