← Store Championship @ Hobby Outpost
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Championship @ Hobby Outpost.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 22.2% | 10 | 70.0% | 62.0% | 58.8% | 57.5% | 1401 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 11.1% | 6 | 75.0% | 51.9% | 55.7% | 50.0% | 1465 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 33.3% | 45.8% | 50.0% | 50.3% | 1228 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Water Fractal | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 51.0% | 48.0% | 48.9% | 1256 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 33.3% | 48.1% | 46.7% | 49.6% | 1159 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Slimes | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 25.0% | 46.7% | 44.0% | 48.3% | 1196 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 22.2% | 8 | 31.2% | 39.6% | 43.8% | 44.6% | 1319 | — |