← Store Championship - Distorted Reflections
Fire AggroTier 1
at Store Championship - Distorted Reflections
decks
3
(14.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
9-8-1
overall winrate
52.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.4%
avg ELO +0.2 per match
expected value
50.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1311
· median 1323
· range 1180–1429
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1134
Q1 1258
Q3 1425
1607
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.1% | -5.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 9.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.3% | +3.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.5% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 29.0% | -15.7 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 9.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.8 |
| Fire Suited | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.5% | +10.1 |
| Slimes | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.2 |
| Water Diao Chan | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.0% | -17.7 |
| Water Genbu | 4.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.4% | +18.6 |
| Wind Arcane | 4.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.8% | -7.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.3 |
