← Store Championship - Distorted Reflections
Water GenbuTier 2
at Store Championship - Distorted Reflections
decks
1
(4.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
3-2-0
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.0%
avg ELO -1.8 per match
expected value
48.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1578
· median 1578
· range 1578–1578
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1134
Q1 1258
Q3 1425
1607
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 14.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 30.6% | -18.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 9.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Water Allies | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diao Chan | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Genbu decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
