Fire RileTier 1
at DTR STORE CHAMPIONSHIP
decks
5
(35.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
20
13-4-3
overall winrate
72.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
63.9%
avg ELO +5.3 per match
expected value
60.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
57.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1415
· median 1467
· range 1289–1496
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1159
Q1 1247
Q3 1467
1512
40% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Suited | 21.4% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 60.7% | +8.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 14.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.6% | +4.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 70.9% | +15.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.5% | +10.1 |
| Fire Byakko | 7.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.1% | -7.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.1% | -7.6 |
| Fire Exia | 7.1% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 35.8% | -10.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.6 |
| Horse and Taxes | 7.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 72.7% | +21.8 |
| Water Genbu | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Wind Allies | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Rile decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Flame Sweep, Evercurrent Raider, Spellward Scepter. Losers more often ran: Nullifying Lantern, Fluffy Shopkeep, Varuckan Acolyte.
Flame Sweep
Winning decks ran 3.5
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Evercurrent Raider
Winning decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
losing decks 1.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Spellward Scepter
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Reduce to Ash
Winning decks ran 3.5
copies on average,
losing decks 1.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Incapacitate
Winning decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Rending Flames
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Nullifying Lantern
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Fluffy Shopkeep
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Varuckan Acolyte
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Crystallized Destiny
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 1.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 111 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 99 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flame Sweep | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Dilu, Auspicious Charger | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Jin, Zealous Maverick | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Displace | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Volda, Smolder's Spite | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Prescience | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beastsoul Visage | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Jin, Fate Defiant | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Sparks | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ravenous Pyre | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Purifying Thurible | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Convergent Ruin | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Shuang Ji of Sacrifice | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fatal Timepiece | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tabula of Salvage | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Berserker Plate | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Searing Rebuke | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Dominus Rex | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Orb of Regret | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hemorrhaging Rend | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jin, Undying Resolve | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mend Flesh | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Enrage | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Siphoning Fractal | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Mirage's Grave | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Manxome Armoire | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exsanguinating Wallop | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire, Black Market | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devouring Malice | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Omenbringer | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beguiling Coup | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Kingslayer | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Majestic Spirit | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fabled Emerald Fatestone | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fireball | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arondight, Azure Blade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Votive Runeblade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |