Fire SuitedTier 2
at DTR STORE CHAMPIONSHIP
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 35.7% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 39.3% | -8.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 14.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +1.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.7 |
| Fire Byakko | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 7.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.5% | -9.1 |
| Horse and Taxes | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.5% | -5.7 |
| Water Genbu | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.0 |
| Wind Allies | 7.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +1.6 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 43 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 43 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Five of Spades | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mortal Ambition | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Four of Spades | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Trump Set | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Forgelight Blade | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Two of Hearts | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Two of Spades | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ashen Riffle | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Straight Flare | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Three of Spades | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Suited Trickery | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |