← The Light Store Championship
Water GenbuTier 2
at The Light Store Championship
decks
2
(10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
2-4-3
overall winrate
38.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.9%
avg ELO +0.9 per match
expected value
48.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1138
· median 1138
· range 1060–1216
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1060
Q1 1233
Q3 1388
1736
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.4 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +1.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.6 |
| Fire Suited | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.5% | +8.8 |
| Water Allies | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.4 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -2.0 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
