← The Light Store Championship
Water Umbra GuardianTier 1
at The Light Store Championship
decks
2
(10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
8-4-0
overall winrate
66.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.8%
avg ELO +2.1 per match
expected value
51.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1299
· median 1299
· range 1276–1322
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1060
Q1 1233
Q3 1388
1736
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 10.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 43.0% | -6.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 10.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.1% | -5.7 |
| Water Genbu | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.7% | +8.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.3 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.7 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
