← The Light Store Championship
Water NeosTier 2
at The Light Store Championship
decks
1
(5.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-3-0
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
34.7%
avg ELO -9.8 per match
expected value
43.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1376
· median 1376
· range 1376–1376
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1060
Q1 1233
Q3 1388
1736
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.2 |
| Water Genbu | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.3% | -20.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.4 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Neos decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
