Fire ExiaTier 2
at STORE CHAMPIONSHIP
decks
2
(9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
16
8-8-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.4%
avg ELO +0.2 per match
expected value
48.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1322
· median 1322
· range 1319–1325
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1037
Q1 1226
Q3 1335
1584
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 40.9% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 47.3% | -1.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 9.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.4% | -7.3 |
| Slimes | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.3% | +2.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.2% | +4.0 |
| Fire Suited | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Exia decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
