Water Umbra GuardianTier 2
at STORE CHAMPIONSHIP
decks
2
(9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
4-6-0
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.9%
avg ELO -2.3 per match
expected value
45.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1146
· median 1146
· range 1113–1180
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1037
Q1 1226
Q3 1335
1584
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 40.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.3 |
| Fire Exia | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Slimes | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +16.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
| Water Allies | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.2% | -2.7 |
| Wind Allies | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
