Water AetherwingTier 2
at STORE CHAMPIONSHIP
decks
1
(4.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
1-5-0
overall winrate
16.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
32.9%
avg ELO -9.1 per match
expected value
38.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
40.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1226
· median 1226
· range 1226–1226
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1037
Q1 1226
Q3 1335
1584
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 40.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.5% | -13.0 |
| Fire Exia | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Aetherwing decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
