← Atlas Gamers DTR Store Championship

Fire AggroTier 1

at Atlas Gamers DTR Store Championship

decks
3 (16.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13 7-6-0
overall winrate
53.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.1% avg ELO +0.4 per match
expected value
54.5% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.6% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1348 · median 1410 · range 1119–1513 (3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1119 Q1 1397 Q3 1501 1539
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 33% in the bottom. This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Rile 61.1% 6 4-2-0 66.7% 60.0% 55.9% +3.2
Wind Shadowstrike 22.2% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 49.7% -0.3
Fire Luxem Assassin 11.1% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.0% -12.8
Fire Suzaku 11.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.5% +15.2
Fire Aetherwing 5.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 43.1% -11.1
Fire Umbra Guardian 5.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 52.5% +4.0
Water Genbu 5.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 45.0% -8.0
Decklists · 3 from this event

The 3 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 25 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 25 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Water Resonance Bauble -1.00 0 1 0
Heated Vengeance -1.00 0 1 0
Undying Dreams +1.00 1 0 0
Liminal Guide +1.00 1 0 0
Forgelight Blade +1.00 1 0 0
Intensified Pyre -1.00 0 1 0
Deflecting Edge +1.00 1 0 0
Demolition +1.00 1 0 0
Blazing Bowman +1.00 1 0 0
Clarent, Reimagined +1.00 1 0 0
Vengeful Paramour -1.00 0 1 0
Evercurrent Raider +1.00 1 0 0
Incinerated Templar -1.00 0 1 0
Blazing Throw -1.00 0 1 0
Fiery Momentum +1.00 1 0 0
Sword Saint's Vow -1.00 0 1 0
Safeguard Amulet -1.00 0 1 0
Clumsy Apprentice +1.00 1 0 0
Drawn Blade +1.00 1 0 0
Sword Saint of Everflame -1.00 0 1 0
Fiery Interference -1.00 0 1 0
Rending Flames +1.00 1 0 0
Nullifying Mirror -1.00 0 1 0
Censer of Restful Peace +1.00 1 0 0
Impact Hammer -1.00 0 1 0

JSON: /api/events/32460/archetypes/Fire Aggro