Fire RileTier 1

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

The 11 public Fire Rile decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

• iLoony 81 cards · placed #2
• RubyXillia 83 cards · placed #3
• Yukineko 83 cards · placed #4
• Leowong 83 cards · placed #6
• Atayo 83 cards · placed #7
• Nickson 83 cards · placed #8
• chazzex 74 cards · placed #10
• steve124tan 79 cards · placed #12
• Hakuryu 81 cards · placed #14
• Tyran 81 cards · placed #16
• Farhan 85 cards · placed #18

In 14 mirror matches (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).

Winners more often ran: Rending Flames, Censer of Restful Peace, Undying Dreams. Losers more often ran: Resolute Stand, Safeguard Amulet, Backup Charger.

↑ Played more by winners

Rending Flames

Winning decks ran 2.1 copies on average, losing decks 1.1.

Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in 8, the loser ran more in 2, both ran the same in 4.

Censer of Restful Peace

Winning decks ran 0.6 copies on average, losing decks 0.1.

Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in 7, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 6.

Undying Dreams

Winning decks ran 4.0 copies on average, losing decks 3.2.

Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in 5, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 9.

Liminal Guide

Winning decks ran 4.0 copies on average, losing decks 2.6.

Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in 5, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 9.

Forgelight Blade

Winning decks ran 0.4 copies on average, losing decks 0.0.

Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in 5, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 9.

Deflecting Edge

Winning decks ran 0.7 copies on average, losing decks 0.0.

Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in 5, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 9.

↓ Played more by losers

Resolute Stand

Losing decks ran 2.4 copies on average, winning decks 1.5.

Of 14 mirrors: the loser ran more in 8, the winner ran more in 3, both ran the same in 3.

Safeguard Amulet

Losing decks ran 0.7 copies on average, winning decks 0.4.

Of 14 mirrors: the loser ran more in 7, the winner ran more in 2, both ran the same in 5.

Backup Charger

Losing decks ran 0.6 copies on average, winning decks 0.4.

Of 14 mirrors: the loser ran more in 6, the winner ran more in 2, both ran the same in 6.

Stalwart Shieldmate

Losing decks ran 1.6 copies on average, winning decks 1.0.

Of 14 mirrors: the loser ran more in 7, the winner ran more in 3, both ran the same in 4.