Fire AggroTier 2
at DTR Win A Box Tpurnament
decks
2
(7.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
2-10-0
overall winrate
16.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.9%
avg ELO -2.2 per match
expected value
38.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1279
· median 1279
· range 1191–1367
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1058
Q1 1149
Q3 1311
1493
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 23.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.9% | -0.9 |
| Slimes | 15.4% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 45.8% | -2.7 |
| Fire Rile | 11.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.8% | -3.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Ranger | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.8% | -3.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.4% | -4.2 |
| Water Fractal | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.7% | +2.6 |
| Water Neos | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.4% | -4.2 |
