Water Umbra GuardianTier 2
at DTR Win A Box Tpurnament
decks
1
(3.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-3-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.6%
avg ELO +0.9 per match
expected value
48.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1058
· median 1058
· range 1058–1058
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1058
Q1 1149
Q3 1311
1493
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 23.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 15.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Rile | 11.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.6% | -2.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.6% | +4.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +1.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Ranger | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.2% | +3.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.6% | -2.2 |
| Water Allies | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
