EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at STORE CHAMPS.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 100.0% | 77.7% | 63.3% | 63.6% | 1348 | — |
| 2 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 14.3% | 8 | 68.8% | 52.4% | 56.7% | 52.8% | 1415 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 75.0% | 51.8% | 55.0% | 50.7% | 1487 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Rile | 3 | 21.4% | 11 | 63.6% | 54.8% | 52.0% | 50.9% | 1368 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Water Allies | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 55.4% | 48.0% | 51.1% | 1334 | — |
| 6 | Wind Vanitas | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 50.0% | 50.4% | 47.5% | 48.0% | 1341 | — |
| 7 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 37.5% | 44.2% | 47.1% | 47.5% | 1339 | — |
| 8 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 51.5% | 46.7% | 48.2% | 1212 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Fire Exia | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 20.0% | 45.5% | 45.0% | 49.9% | 1206 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 40.0% | 34.6% | 45.0% | 42.5% | 1467 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 25.0% | 43.1% | 44.0% | 46.4% | 1123 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 12.5% | 37.9% | 41.7% | 44.6% | 1211 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 7.1% | 3 | 0.0% | 43.4% | 40.0% | 47.4% | 1040 | ↓ low |