Fire RileTier 1

at 卡卡貓桌遊店家冠軍賽

decks

10 (55.6% of field)

matches (non-mirror)

55 27-22-6

overall winrate

54.5%

ELO-adjusted winrate

53.3% avg ELO +1.1 per match

expected value

52.4% share-weighted (raw)

EV (ELO-adj)

51.5% share-weighted (skill-controlled)

Pilot Skill · average

mean ELO 1357 · median 1375 · range 1212–1482 (10 pilots with an ELO rating)

1026 Q1 1262 Q3 1438 1536

30% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 20% in the bottom.

Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent	Their share	Matches	W-L-D	Raw WR	Shrunk WR	Adj WR	ELO Δ/match
Fire Crux Hybrid	16.7%	11	3-6-2	36.4%	40.0%	43.2%	-3.0
Fire Luxem Assassin	11.1%	4	2-2-0	50.0%	50.0%	46.3%	-2.4
Fire Suited	11.1%	10	4-5-1	45.0%	46.4%	47.8%	-1.0
Fire Suzaku	11.1%	5	2-1-2	60.0%	55.6%	59.2%	+5.3
Wind Shadowstrike	11.1%	5	3-1-1	70.0%	61.1%	53.8%	+2.2
Fire Aggro	5.6%	2	2-0-0	100.0%	66.7%	60.5%	+10.1
Fire Arcane	5.6%	4	2-2-0	50.0%	50.0%	52.8%	+1.8
Fire Crux Lorraine	5.6%	5	3-2-0	60.0%	55.6%	58.3%	+4.8
Fire Umbra Ranger	5.6%	3	1-2-0	33.3%	42.9%	37.4%	-9.4
Water Neos	5.6%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	53.2%	+5.1
Wind Astra Cleric	5.6%	3	3-0-0	100.0%	71.4%	69.7%	+14.7
Wind Crux Lorraine	5.6%	2	1-1-0	50.0%	50.0%	52.4%	+2.3

Decklists · 10 from this event

The 10 public Fire Rile decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 14 mirror matches (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).

Winners more often ran: Dungeon Guide, Flame Sweep, Lorraine, Spirit Ruler. Losers more often ran: Vermilion Decree, Embercrypt Burn, Hone by Fire.

↑ Played more by winners

Dungeon Guide

Winning decks ran 3.7 copies on average, losing decks 2.8.

Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in 5, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 8.

Flame Sweep

Winning decks ran 2.5 copies on average, losing decks 2.1.

Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in 8, the loser ran more in 4, both ran the same in 2.

Lorraine, Spirit Ruler

Winning decks ran 0.5 copies on average, losing decks 0.3.

Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in 6, the loser ran more in 3, both ran the same in 5.

Merlin, Kingslayer

Winning decks ran 0.5 copies on average, losing decks 0.3.

Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in 6, the loser ran more in 3, both ran the same in 5.

Merlin, Memory Thief

Winning decks ran 0.5 copies on average, losing decks 0.3.

Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in 6, the loser ran more in 3, both ran the same in 5.

Inert Sword

Winning decks ran 0.5 copies on average, losing decks 0.3.

Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in 6, the loser ran more in 3, both ran the same in 5.

↓ Played more by losers