Fire RileTier 1
at DTR-Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 14.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Fire Suited | 14.3% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.7% | +2.1 |
| Water Allies | 14.3% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.5% | +1.4 |
| Water Fractal | 14.3% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 52.3% | +1.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.4 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 7.1% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 41.9% | -6.1 |
| Wind Allies | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 48.1% | -1.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.4 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Rile decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 46 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 46 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Insignia of the Corhazi | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Siphoning Fractal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Uncover the Plot | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Luxera's Map | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Mirage's Grave | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Leporine Masque | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lamentation's Toll | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Manxome Armoire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enchanted Fete | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gleaming Cut | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Luxem Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lightweaver's Assault | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Omenbringer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Soutirer Vortex | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beguiling Coup | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Blinding Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Juggle Knives | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |