Water Umbra GuardianTier 1
at DTR-Store Championship
decks
1
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
5-0-4
overall winrate
77.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
61.1%
avg ELO +5.1 per match
expected value
60.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1446
· median 1446
· range 1446–1446
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1187
Q1 1238
Q3 1380
1446
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 28.6% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 58.1% | +6.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 14.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.8% | +8.4 |
| Fire Suited | 14.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Water Allies | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 7.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +1.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 7.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -1.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 7.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -1.6 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
