Water FractalTier 1
at DTR-Store Championship
decks
2
(14.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
7-6-2
overall winrate
53.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.8%
avg ELO +1.6 per match
expected value
50.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1333
· median 1333
· range 1279–1387
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1187
Q1 1238
Q3 1380
1446
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 28.6% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 47.7% | -1.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 14.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +1.3 |
| Fire Suited | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 14.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.8% | -7.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 7.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.5% | -9.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -12.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.7 |
