Fire Crux MageTier 1

at KouritenSG Store Championship

decks

6 (20.7% of field)

matches (non-mirror)

19 9-8-2

overall winrate

52.6%

ELO-adjusted winrate

52.8% avg ELO +1.1 per match

expected value

52.1% share-weighted (raw)

EV (ELO-adj)

51.6% share-weighted (skill-controlled)

Pilot Skill · average

mean ELO 1304 · median 1354 · range 1056–1381 (6 pilots with an ELO rating)

1056 Q1 1139 Q3 1358 1633

50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 17% in the bottom.

Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent	Their share	Matches	W-L-D	Raw WR	Shrunk WR	Adj WR	ELO Δ/match
Fire Crux Lorraine	10.3%	5	1-3-1	30.0%	38.9%	44.0%	-3.4
Fire Firebloom Burn	10.3%	2	2-0-0	100.0%	66.7%	60.1%	+9.7
Fire Suzaku	6.9%	2	1-1-0	50.0%	50.0%	47.3%	-2.6
Wind Crux Lorraine	6.9%	1	0-0-1	50.0%	50.0%	49.8%	-0.3
Wind Seiryuu	6.9%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Wind Shadowstrike	6.9%	2	2-0-0	100.0%	66.7%	61.4%	+11.0
Fire Aggro	3.4%	1	0-1-0	0.0%	40.0%	44.9%	-8.2
Fire Byakko	3.4%	1	0-1-0	0.0%	40.0%	45.3%	-7.6
Water Aetherwing	3.4%	1	0-1-0	0.0%	40.0%	43.5%	-10.3
Water Allies	3.4%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	55.3%	+8.4
Water Crux Lorraine	3.4%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Water Fractal	3.4%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	55.1%	+8.2
Water Genbu	3.4%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Wind Astra Cleric	3.4%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Wind Crux Mage	3.4%	1	0-1-0	0.0%	40.0%	45.3%	-7.5
Wind Luxem Zander	3.4%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	62.0%	+19.2

Decklists · 6 from this event

The 6 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Reduce to Ash, Flame Sweep, Crux Sight. Losers more often ran: Smoke Out, Rending Flames.

↑ Played more by winners