← KouritenSG Store Championship
Water AlliesTier 2
at KouritenSG Store Championship
decks
1
(3.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
0-3-2
overall winrate
20.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
35.2%
avg ELO -8.5 per match
expected value
42.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1078
· median 1078
· range 1078–1078
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1056
Q1 1139
Q3 1358
1633
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 20.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 10.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 10.3% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.8% | -2.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 6.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
