← 貓腳印-新莊店 0830 DTR Store Championship
Fire RileTier 1
at 貓腳印-新莊店 0830 DTR Store Championship
decks
7
(36.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
38
17-14-7
overall winrate
53.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.1%
avg ELO +0.4 per match
expected value
53.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1386
· median 1386
· range 1121–1591
(7 pilots with an ELO rating)
1068
Q1 1311
Q3 1457
1591
29% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
14% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 10.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.0% | +16.3 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 10.5% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -0.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 48.6% | -1.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 10.5% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.2% | +1.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.5% | 9 | 5-3-1 | 61.1% | 57.7% | 56.2% | +2.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Fire Exia | 5.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +0.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 5.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 40.4% | -9.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.3% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.2% | +1.6 |
| Horse and Taxes | 5.3% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.0% | +3.8 |
| Slimes | 5.3% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 38.1% | -8.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.3% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 41.7% | -5.3 |
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Reduce to Ash, Vengeful Paramour. Losers more often ran: Cremation Ritual, Incapacitate.
Reduce to Ash
Winning decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
losing decks 2.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Vengeful Paramour
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 1.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Cremation Ritual
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 1.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Incapacitate
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 1.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 101 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 90 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reduce to Ash | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Huaji of Heaven's Rise | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Searing Truth | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Ignis Deus | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jin, Zealous Maverick | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Proof of Life | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coiled Fatestone | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Ignite Fate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jin, Fate Defiant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Glitter | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Da Qiao, Cinderbinder | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shuang Ji of Sacrifice | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Broken Promises | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Berserker Plate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Hemorrhaging Rend | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jin, Undying Resolve | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Relentless Outburst | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Disenchant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mend Flesh | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fabled Ruby Fatestone | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enrage | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grande Aiguille | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Volda, Smolder's Spite | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Kingslayer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Mirage's Grave | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lamentation's Toll | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Manxome Armoire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Thunderclap | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devouring Malice | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Omenbringer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beguiling Coup | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fireball | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vigil Rempart | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |