← Manta Trading Store Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Manta Trading Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 10.0% | 5 | 100.0% | 79.9% | 60.0% | 61.5% | 1423 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 10.0% | 5 | 80.0% | 69.2% | 57.1% | 58.2% | 1258 | ↓ low |
| 3 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 75.0% | 64.8% | 56.0% | 57.7% | 1353 | — |
| 4 | Wind Allies | 2 | 20.0% | 7 | 57.1% | 38.8% | 52.5% | 47.2% | 1514 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Exia | 1 | 10.0% | 5 | 60.0% | 62.5% | 51.4% | 54.8% | 1162 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Fire Rile | 2 | 20.0% | 8 | 50.0% | 47.4% | 48.9% | 49.0% | 1312 | — |
| 7 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 10.0% | 5 | 40.0% | 34.1% | 46.7% | 43.0% | 1463 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Fire Suited | 1 | 10.0% | 5 | 20.0% | 37.7% | 42.9% | 44.8% | 1344 | — |
| 9 | Water Fractal | 1 | 10.0% | 5 | 20.0% | 37.1% | 42.9% | 44.7% | 1275 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Arisanna | 1 | 10.0% | 5 | 0.0% | 33.4% | 40.0% | 44.4% | 1063 | ↓ low |