← CGC Grand Archive TCG Store Championship Event

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at CGC Grand Archive TCG Store Championship Event. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Water Allies 2 7.7% 22 68.2% 74.7% 56.1% 61.4% 1240
2 Wind Seiryuu 1 3.8% 12 62.5% 47.9% 54.0% 48.5% 1407 ↑ top
3 Wind Shadowstrike 4 15.4% 31 54.8% 54.4% 53.7% 53.3% 1306
4 Fire Rile 11 42.3% 62 51.6% 47.7% 51.8% 49.9% 1356 ↑ top
5 Fire Suzaku 3 11.5% 23 50.0% 50.7% 51.5% 52.6% 1248
6 Water Fractal 1 3.8% 8 50.0% 59.7% 51.3% 56.2% 1212 ↓ low
7 Fire Crux Mage 3 11.5% 24 52.1% 56.3% 51.2% 53.2% 1350 ↑ top
8 Fire Exia 2 7.7% 13 50.0% 36.7% 50.4% 45.8% 1457 ↑ top
9 Wind Astra Cleric 1 3.8% 9 50.0% 51.6% 49.6% 50.9% 1228
10 Fire Luxem Assassin 2 7.7% 14 39.3% 39.5% 44.9% 44.2% 1304
11 Wind Allies 1 3.8% 7 28.6% 45.4% 43.1% 47.7% 1122 ↓ low
12 Fire Umbra Guardian 1 3.8% 8 37.5% 49.9% 42.5% 46.8% 1131 ↓ low
13 Fire Aggro 4 15.4% 25 40.0% 36.3% 41.8% 41.3% 1263
14 Wind Diana 1 3.8% 6 16.7% 42.3% 41.5% 47.1% 1033 ↓ low