Fire Crux MageTier 1
at DTR Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 30.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.4% | +8.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 10.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.1% | +17.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.3 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 52.1% | +2.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.2 |
| Slimes | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.5 |
| Water Genbu | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.0% | -8.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 21 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 21 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intangible Geist | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Thunderclap | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tabula of Salvage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |