Water Tera MageTier 2
at DTR Store Championship
decks
1
(5.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
3-2-0
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
65.3%
avg ELO +8.8 per match
expected value
45.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1100
· median 1100
· range 1100–1100
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1031
Q1 1137
Q3 1322
1495
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 30.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.7% | -3.6 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.1% | -3.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.8% | +25.3 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +18.0 |
| Water Genbu | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Tera Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
