Fire Umbra CielTier 2
at DTR Store Championship
decks
1
(5.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
0-5-1
overall winrate
8.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
25.4%
avg ELO -13.1 per match
expected value
40.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
41.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1146
· median 1146
· range 1146–1146
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1031
Q1 1137
Q3 1322
1495
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 30.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.2% | -23.6 |
| Slimes | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.5 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Ciel decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
