EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Kayfabe - Store Championship - DTR. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Horse and Taxes

54.8%

22.2% share · 11 matches

1st

Fire Crux Mage

54.9%

11.1% share · 8 matches

11.1% share · 10 matches

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Fire Crux Mage	1	11.1%	8	62.5%	63.3%	54.9%	57.2%	1241	↓ low
2	Horse and Taxes	2	22.2%	11	63.6%	53.4%	54.8%	51.5%	1353	—
3	Wind Ciel	1	11.1%	10	60.0%	55.8%	54.6%	53.8%	1328	—
4	Fire Rile	4	44.4%	16	56.2%	56.1%	54.0%	55.3%	1292	—
5	Wind Arcane	1	11.1%	3	66.7%	43.4%	53.3%	44.5%	1632	↑ top
6	Wind Shadowstrike	2	22.2%	10	30.0%	31.8%	40.7%	37.5%	1305	—
7	Fire Firebloom Burn	1	11.1%	3	0.0%	46.5%	40.0%	48.4%	1153	↓ low
8	Fire Exia	1	11.1%	3	0.0%	37.5%	40.0%	44.0%	1220	↓ low