← Hobby Lords Setia Alam DTR Store Championship
Water AlliesTier 1
at Hobby Lords Setia Alam DTR Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.0% | +2.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 59.6% | +9.2 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.5% | -10.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Slimes | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.5% | +20.0 |
| Water Genbu | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Wind Overlord | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 9 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 9 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expose Darkness | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Overpowering Defense | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |